TGM's two-stage DCF values Incyte Corporation (INCY) between $96.64 and $168.52 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $124.91. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$125.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.4%/yr | 9.0% | $96.64 |
| Base case | 16.4%/yr | 8.0% | $124.91 |
| Optimistic | 19.4%/yr | 7.0% | $168.52 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $110.61 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$125.31
Market-Implied Growth
+16.5%/yr
vs +16.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$96.64 – $168.52
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for INCY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $670.6M · 0.20B shares · net cash $3.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$124.91
-0.3% vs $125.31
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $125.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $156 | $172 | $192 | $219 | $256 |
| 7.0% | $129 | $139 | $151 | $166 | $185 |
| 8.0% | $110 | $117 | $125 | $134 | $146 |
| 9.0% | $96.59 | $101 | $107 | $113 | $121 |
| 10.0% | $86.20 | $89.80 | $93.88 | $98.53 | $104 |
