TGM's two-stage DCF values Incyte Corporation (INCY) between $97.99 and $172.23 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $127.07. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$119.80 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.4%/yr | 8.9% | $97.99 |
| Base case | 16.4%/yr | 7.9% | $127.07 |
| Optimistic | 19.4%/yr | 6.9% | $172.23 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $123.37 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$119.80
Market-Implied Growth
+14.7%/yr
vs +16.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$97.99 – $172.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for INCY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $670.6M · 0.20B shares · net cash $3.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$127.07
+6.1% vs $119.80
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $119.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | $159 | $176 | $197 | $226 | $267 |
| 6.9% | $131 | $141 | $154 | $170 | $191 |
| 7.9% | $112 | $119 | $127 | $137 | $149 |
| 8.9% | $97.78 | $103 | $109 | $115 | $123 |
| 9.9% | $87.13 | $90.83 | $95.02 | $99.82 | $105 |
