Incyte Corporation (INCY) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Incyte Corporation (INCY) between $100.85 and $171.11 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $130.18. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$98.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.6%/yr | 9.1% | $100.85 |
| Base case | 17.6%/yr | 8.1% | $130.18 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.1% | $171.11 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $122.04 | |
Current Price
$98.22
Market-Implied Growth
+9.6%/yr
vs +20.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$100.85 – $171.11
model output — not a price target
INCY DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for INCY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $670.6M · 0.20B shares · net cash $3.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$212.94
+116.8% vs $98.22
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $98.22; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $284 | $311 | $345 | $389 | $451 |
| 7.1% | $229 | $245 | $264 | $288 | $319 |
| 8.1% | $190 | $201 | $213 | $228 | $246 |
| 9.1% | $162 | $169 | $178 | $187 | $199 |
| 10.1% | $141 | $146 | $152 | $159 | $166 |
About Incyte Corporation
Incyte Corporation is a biopharmaceutical firm engaged in the research, development, and global marketing of its own innovative therapies. Its current product offerings include JAKAFI, prescribed for myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera; PEMAZYRE, a fibroblast growth factor receptor kinase inhibitor that targets oncogenic drivers in various liquid and solid tumor types; and ICLUSIG, a kinase inhibitor utilized for chronic myeloid leukemia and Philadelphia-chromosome positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Beyond its marketed drugs, Incyte's pipeline features several promising candidates. Among its clinical-stage assets are ruxolitinib, targeting steroid-refractory chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), and itacitinib, which is undergoing Phase II/III trials for newly diagnosed chronic GVHD. Pemigatinib is also being investigated for conditions such as bladder cancer, cholangiocarcinoma, myeloproliferative syndrome, and other tumor types. Further advancing its research, the company is developing Parsaclisib, currently in Phase II studies for follicular lymphoma, marginal zone lymphoma, and mantle cell lymphoma. Additionally, Retifanlimab is in Phase II development for multiple indications, including MSI-high endometrial cancer, Merkel cell carcinoma, anal cancer, and non-small cell lung cancer. Incyte maintains a broad network of strategic alliances with numerous pharmaceutical and biotech companies, including key partners like Novartis International Pharmaceutical Ltd., Eli Lilly and Company, and Agenus Inc., among many others. These collaborations extend to clinical trials, notably joint efforts with MorphoSys AG and Xencor, Inc., to evaluate a combination therapy involving tafasitamab, plamotamab, and lenalidomide for patients with recurrent or resistant diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and follicular lymphoma. Established in 1991, the corporation's main offices are situated in Wilmington, Delaware.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- CEO
- William J. Meury