Why we don't show a single “fair value” for HWM
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($52.69) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.8%/yr | 11.0% | $28.93 |
| Base case | 13.8%/yr | 10.0% | $38.80 |
| Optimistic | 16.8%/yr | 9.0% | $52.69 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $99.29 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$229.67
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$38.80
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HWM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $829.5M · 0.40B shares · net debt $2.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$38.80
-83.1% vs $229.67
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $229.67; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $47.93 | $51.69 | $56.14 | $61.46 | $67.96 |
| 9.0% | $40.31 | $43.01 | $46.12 | $49.74 | $54.02 |
| 10.0% | $34.50 | $36.52 | $38.80 | $41.40 | $44.39 |
| 11.0% | $29.94 | $31.49 | $33.21 | $35.15 | $37.35 |
| 12.0% | $26.25 | $27.47 | $28.82 | $30.31 | $31.98 |
