Why we don't show a single “fair value” for HWM
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($49.32) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.3%/yr | 11.0% | $26.96 |
| Base case | 12.3%/yr | 10.0% | $36.24 |
| Optimistic | 15.3%/yr | 9.0% | $49.32 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $104.78 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$288.20
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$36.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HWM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $829.5M · 0.40B shares · net debt $2.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$36.24
-87.4% vs $288.20
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $288.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $44.78 | $48.30 | $52.46 | $57.44 | $63.52 |
| 9.0% | $37.66 | $40.18 | $43.09 | $46.48 | $50.48 |
| 10.0% | $32.22 | $34.11 | $36.24 | $38.67 | $41.48 |
| 11.0% | $27.95 | $29.40 | $31.02 | $32.83 | $34.89 |
| 12.0% | $24.50 | $25.64 | $26.90 | $28.30 | $29.86 |
