Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for HWM
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($49.25) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.3%/yr | 11.0% | $26.92 |
| Base case | 12.3%/yr | 10.0% | $36.19 |
| Optimistic | 15.3%/yr | 9.0% | $49.25 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $107.67 | |
Current Price
$277.66
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$36.19
model output — not a price target
HWM DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HWM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $829.5M · 0.40B shares · net debt $2.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$52.35
-81.1% vs $277.66
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $277.66; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $67.93 | $72.17 | $77.18 | $83.20 | $90.55 |
| 9.0% | $56.56 | $59.46 | $62.80 | $66.71 | $71.32 |
| 10.0% | $47.95 | $50.01 | $52.35 | $55.02 | $58.10 |
| 11.0% | $41.23 | $42.74 | $44.43 | $46.34 | $48.49 |
| 12.0% | $35.86 | $36.99 | $38.25 | $39.64 | $41.20 |
About Howmet Aerospace Inc.
Howmet Aerospace Inc., headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and originally established in 1888 as Arconic Inc., is a global leader in providing sophisticated engineered solutions. The company caters to the aerospace and transportation sectors across a wide international footprint, including key markets such as the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, and China. Its business operations are structured into four main segments: Engine Products: This division manufactures critical components like airfoils and seamless rolled rings, primarily utilized in aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines, alongside various rotating and structural parts. Fastening Systems: This segment specializes in producing aerospace-grade fastening systems, as well as fasteners for commercial transportation, general industrial applications, and other uses. Engineered Structures: Responsible for supplying titanium ingots and mill products for aerospace and defense applications, this segment also provides aluminum and nickel forgings, and precision machined components and assemblies. Forged Wheels: This segment focuses on offering forged aluminum wheels and associated products specifically for the heavy-duty truck and commercial transportation markets.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- CEO
- John C. Plant