TGM's two-stage DCF values Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) between $19.34 and $40.98 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $27.55. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$21.23 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -1.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $19.34 |
| Base case | 3.3%/yr | 7.5% | $27.55 |
| Optimistic | 6.3%/yr | 6.5% | $40.98 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $29.16 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$21.23
Market-Implied Growth
-1.8%/yr
vs -6.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$19.34 – $40.98
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HRL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $817.5M · 0.55B shares · net debt $2.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$27.55
+29.8% vs $21.23
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $21.23; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $36.86 | $41.91 | $48.65 | $58.07 | $72.19 |
| 6.5% | $28.63 | $31.67 | $35.46 | $40.33 | $46.82 |
| 7.5% | $23.15 | $25.15 | $27.55 | $30.47 | $34.13 |
| 8.5% | $19.24 | $20.64 | $22.27 | $24.20 | $26.51 |
| 9.5% | $16.30 | $17.33 | $18.51 | $19.86 | $21.44 |
