Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)'s fair value in a range of $19.71 – $30.05 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $23.98 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $23.98, the market is pricing in roughly +7.3%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +2.0%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$23.98
Fair-Value Range
$19.71 – $30.05
Market-Implied Growth
+7.3%/yr
vs +2.0% 5Y actual
HRL DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $794.9M · 0.55B shares · net debt $2.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$19.71
-17.8% vs $23.98
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $23.98; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $25.46 | $26.96 | $28.75 | $30.89 | $33.50 |
| 9.0% | $21.30 | $22.34 | $23.53 | $24.92 | $26.56 |
| 10.0% | $18.14 | $18.88 | $19.71 | $20.66 | $21.75 |
| 11.0% | $15.66 | $16.19 | $16.80 | $17.47 | $18.24 |
| 12.0% | $13.65 | $14.06 | $14.50 | $15.00 | $15.55 |
About Hormel Foods Corporation
Hormel Foods Corporation is a prominent global food company that specializes in the creation, preparation, and supply of a diverse array of meat, nut, and other culinary items. Its extensive clientele spans retail outlets, institutional food providers (foodservice), specialty delis, and various commercial enterprises across the United States and internationally. The company's operations are strategically structured into four main divisions: Grocery Products, Refrigerated Foods, Jennie-O Turkey Store, and International & Other. Hormel's product portfolio is broad, encompassing numerous perishable goods such as fresh meats, frozen food selections, convenient refrigerated meal options, a variety of sausages, hams, guacamole, and bacon. Additionally, it offers a wide range of non-perishable items, including canned luncheon meats, various nut butters, snack nuts, chili, microwave-ready meals, hashes, stews, tortillas, salsas, and tortilla chips. Beyond these offerings, Hormel Foods is also actively involved in the processing, promotion, and distribution of both branded and unbranded products derived from pork, beef, poultry, and turkey. The company further supplies nutritional food items and supplements, dessert and beverage mixes, and industrial-grade gelatin. Its extensive product line is marketed under numerous widely recognized brand names, including SKIPPY, SPAM, Hormel, Natural Choice, Applegate, Justin's, Jennie-O, Café H, Herdez, Black Label, Sadler's, Columbus, Gatherings, Wholly, Planters, NUT-rition, Planters Cheez Balls, and Corn Nuts. These products reach consumers through a multi-channel distribution network, utilizing internal sales teams, independent brokers, and various distributors. Founded in 1891 as Geo. A. Hormel & Company, the organization was officially rebranded as Hormel Foods Corporation in January 1995. Its corporate headquarters are located in Austin, Minnesota.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- CEO
- Jeffrey Ettinger