TGM's two-stage DCF values Honeywell International Inc. (HON) between $130.71 and $263.80 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $177.23. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$239.79 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.8% | $130.71 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.8% | $177.23 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.8% | $263.80 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $481.19 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$239.79
Market-Implied Growth
+7.4%/yr
vs +0.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$130.71 – $263.80
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HON (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.9B · 0.32B shares · net debt $22.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$177.23
-26.1% vs $239.79
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $239.79; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $234 | $260 | $292 | $332 | $385 |
| 7.8% | $185 | $203 | $224 | $249 | $280 |
| 8.8% | $150 | $163 | $177 | $194 | $214 |
| 9.8% | $124 | $133 | $144 | $156 | $169 |
| 10.8% | $103 | $110 | $118 | $127 | $137 |
