Why we don't show a single “fair value” for HIMS
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Hims & Hers Health, Inc. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $1.14 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $2.29 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $3.57 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $111.42 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$28.09
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$2.29
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HIMS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $60.5M · 0.22B shares · net debt $744.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$2.29
-91.9% vs $28.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $28.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $3.28 | $3.65 | $4.06 | $4.54 | $5.10 |
| 10.5% | $2.48 | $2.75 | $3.06 | $3.41 | $3.81 |
| 11.5% | $1.83 | $2.05 | $2.29 | $2.55 | $2.85 |
| 12.5% | $1.31 | $1.48 | $1.67 | $1.88 | $2.11 |
| 13.5% | $0.88 | $1.02 | $1.17 | $1.33 | $1.51 |
