Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) between $215.40 and $471.98 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $314.13. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$283.48 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.2%/yr | 8.5% | $215.40 |
| Base case | 7.2%/yr | 7.5% | $314.13 |
| Optimistic | 10.2%/yr | 6.5% | $471.98 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $919.01 | |
Current Price
$283.48
Market-Implied Growth
+5.1%/yr
vs +7.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$215.40 – $471.98
model output — not a price target
HII DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HII (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $580.0M · 0.04B shares · net debt $2.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$383.85
+35.4% vs $283.48
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $283.48; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $545 | $610 | $696 | $818 | $1000 |
| 6.5% | $417 | $454 | $501 | $561 | $640 |
| 7.5% | $333 | $356 | $384 | $418 | $461 |
| 8.5% | $272 | $288 | $306 | $328 | $353 |
| 9.5% | $228 | $239 | $251 | $265 | $282 |
About Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) stands as a prominent American enterprise specializing in the comprehensive lifecycle management of military vessels, encompassing their design, construction, modernization, and maintenance. The company's diverse operations are segmented into three core divisions: Ingalls Shipbuilding, Newport News Shipbuilding, and Technical Solutions. HII is a primary builder of non-nuclear ships, delivering amphibious assault ships, expeditionary warfare vessels, surface combatants, and national security cutters to both the U.S. Navy and U.S. Coast Guard. Furthermore, it plays a critical role in providing nuclear-powered ships, including aircraft carriers and submarines, along with essential associated services such as refueling, extensive overhauls, and inactivation procedures. Beyond direct shipbuilding, Huntington Ingalls Industries offers specialized naval nuclear support services, covering the full spectrum from design and construction to maintenance and disposal for active U.S. Navy nuclear fleets, in addition to maintaining nuclear reactor prototypes. Its broader technical and support portfolio includes life-cycle sustainment services for the U.S. Navy fleet and other maritime clients; sophisticated information technology and mission-specific solutions for defense, intelligence, and federal civilian agencies; nuclear facility management, operational support, and environmental remediation services for various government bodies and private sector entities; comprehensive defense and federal solutions; and the development of cutting-edge unmanned systems. Established in 1886, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. is headquartered in Newport News, Virginia.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- CEO
- Christopher Douglas Kastner