TGM's two-stage DCF values Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) between $181.43 and $404.67 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $267.34. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$324.48 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.0%/yr | 8.5% | $181.43 |
| Base case | 4.0%/yr | 7.5% | $267.34 |
| Optimistic | 7.0%/yr | 6.5% | $404.67 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $836.85 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$324.48
Market-Implied Growth
+7.8%/yr
vs +1.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$181.43 – $404.67
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HII (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $580.0M · 0.04B shares · net debt $2.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$267.34
-17.6% vs $324.48
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $324.48; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $363 | $415 | $484 | $580 | $725 |
| 6.5% | $278 | $310 | $348 | $398 | $465 |
| 7.5% | $222 | $243 | $267 | $297 | $335 |
| 8.5% | $182 | $197 | $213 | $233 | $257 |
| 9.5% | $152 | $163 | $175 | $189 | $205 |
