TGM's two-stage DCF values W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) between $422.43 and $767.89 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $563.70. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$1,277.55 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.3%/yr | 10.3% | $422.43 |
| Base case | 9.3%/yr | 9.3% | $563.70 |
| Optimistic | 12.3%/yr | 8.3% | $767.89 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $497.05 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1,277.55
Market-Implied Growth
+29.2%/yr
vs +9.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$422.43 – $767.89
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GWW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.5B · 0.05B shares · net debt $2.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$563.70
-55.9% vs $1277.55
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1277.55; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $698 | $758 | $829 | $917 | $1028 |
| 8.3% | $584 | $625 | $673 | $730 | $799 |
| 9.3% | $500 | $530 | $564 | $603 | $650 |
| 10.3% | $434 | $457 | $482 | $511 | $544 |
| 11.3% | $383 | $400 | $419 | $441 | $466 |
