W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) between $405.63 and $738.29 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $541.67. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$1,374.78 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.4%/yr | 10.3% | $405.63 |
| Base case | 8.4%/yr | 9.3% | $541.67 |
| Optimistic | 11.4%/yr | 8.3% | $738.29 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $503.91 | |
Current Price
$1,374.78
Market-Implied Growth
+31.1%/yr
vs +7.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$405.63 – $738.29
model output — not a price target
GWW DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GWW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.5B · 0.05B shares · net debt $2.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$671.77
-51.1% vs $1374.78
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1374.78; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $872 | $932 | $1003 | $1092 | $1203 |
| 8.3% | $723 | $763 | $809 | $863 | $929 |
| 9.3% | $613 | $641 | $672 | $708 | $750 |
| 10.3% | $529 | $549 | $571 | $596 | $624 |
| 11.3% | $463 | $477 | $493 | $511 | $531 |
About W.W. Grainger, Inc.
W.W. Grainger, Inc. stands as a significant global supplier of maintenance, repair, and operating (MRO) supplies and related services. Its market presence spans several international regions, including the United States, Japan, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company structures its operations into two principal divisions: High-Touch Solutions N.A. and Endless Assortment. Grainger's extensive product offerings cover essential categories such as safety and security provisions, equipment for material handling and storage, plumbing and pump components, cleaning and facility upkeep items, and both metalworking and general hand tools. Furthermore, it delivers vital support functions, including inventory management and expert technical assistance. The firm serves a wide array of organizational customers, from private businesses and large corporations to government bodies and other institutions, reaching them through both dedicated sales and service teams and its robust digital and e-commerce platforms. Established in 1927, W.W. Grainger, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Lake Forest, Illinois.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial - Distribution
- CEO
- Donald G. Macpherson