GSK plc (GSK) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values GSK plc (GSK) between $52.27 and $103.14 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $69.48. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$52.50 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -3.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $52.27 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $69.48 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $103.14 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $309.54 | |
Current Price
$52.50
Market-Implied Growth
-3.5%/yr
vs -0.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$52.27 – $103.14
model output — not a price target
GSK DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GSK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.9B · 2.00B shares · net debt $19.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$68.06
+29.6% vs $52.50
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $52.50; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $94.68 | $105 | $119 | $139 | $169 |
| 6.5% | $73.69 | $79.75 | $87.33 | $97.06 | $110 |
| 7.5% | $59.71 | $63.51 | $68.06 | $73.63 | $80.60 |
| 8.5% | $49.73 | $52.26 | $55.22 | $58.71 | $62.90 |
| 9.5% | $42.24 | $44.01 | $46.03 | $48.37 | $51.09 |
About GSK plc
GSK plc, a global pharmaceutical entity founded in 1715 and headquartered in Brentford, United Kingdom, dedicates its efforts to the research, development, and manufacturing of a wide array of medical solutions. Until May 2022, the company was known as GlaxoSmithKline plc. Its primary objective is to prevent and treat illnesses by producing both vaccines and a comprehensive range of specialty and general medicines for markets across the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. The company's operations are organized into two key divisions: Commercial Operations and Total R&D. Its extensive vaccine portfolio includes immunizations against shingles, meningitis, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), seasonal and pandemic influenza, and polio. Beyond preventative care, GSK provides diverse therapeutic products covering critical areas such as HIV, oncology, respiratory and immunology conditions, and other specialized medical fields. This also encompasses inhaled treatments for chronic respiratory ailments like asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), along with antibiotics for various infections. Innovation at GSK is frequently driven by strategic partnerships. Notable collaborations include an agreement with CureVac to advance mRNA-based influenza vaccines, and alliances with Wave Life Sciences and Elsie Biotechnologies focused on developing oligonucleotide platforms. Furthermore, GSK has established two distinct strategic collaborations with Relation to progress therapeutics for fibrotic diseases and osteoarthritis. The company is also engaged in a multi-target strategic alliance aimed at developing pioneering treatments for individuals suffering from Parkinson's disease, and a partnership with Flagship Pioneering to identify novel medicines and vaccines.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - General
- CEO
- Luke Victor Miels