TGM's two-stage DCF values GSK plc (GSK) between $52.28 and $103.16 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $69.50. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$50.90 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -4.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $52.28 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $69.50 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $103.16 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $132.69 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$50.90
Market-Implied Growth
-4.1%/yr
vs -2.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$52.28 – $103.16
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GSK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.9B · 2.00B shares · net debt $19.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$69.50
+36.5% vs $50.90
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $50.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $92.70 | $105 | $122 | $146 | $181 |
| 6.5% | $72.20 | $79.77 | $89.22 | $101 | $118 |
| 7.5% | $58.53 | $63.52 | $69.50 | $76.79 | $85.91 |
| 8.5% | $48.77 | $52.27 | $56.34 | $61.15 | $66.92 |
| 9.5% | $41.45 | $44.02 | $46.95 | $50.32 | $54.26 |
