Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) between $112.67 and $192.34 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $144.73. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$238.10 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +21.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.5%/yr | 9.7% | $112.67 |
| Base case | 8.5%/yr | 8.7% | $144.73 |
| Optimistic | 11.5%/yr | 7.7% | $192.34 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $176.90 | |
Current Price
$238.10
Market-Implied Growth
+21.8%/yr
vs +5.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$112.67 – $192.34
model output — not a price target
GRMN DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GRMN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.2B · 0.19B shares · net cash $2.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$175.77
-26.2% vs $238.10
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $238.10; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $225 | $242 | $262 | $287 | $321 |
| 7.7% | $188 | $198 | $210 | $225 | $244 |
| 8.7% | $161 | $168 | $176 | $185 | $197 |
| 9.7% | $140 | $145 | $151 | $157 | $165 |
| 10.7% | $125 | $128 | $132 | $137 | $142 |
About Garmin Ltd.
Garmin Ltd. specializes in the design, development, manufacturing, marketing, and global distribution of diverse wireless products and solutions. Its operations span across North and South America, the Asia Pacific region, the Australian Continent, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company's offerings are organized into several key segments: Fitness: This division caters to athletes and active individuals with products like specialized running and multi-sport watches, cycling computers, activity trackers, smartwatches, and various fitness-related accessories. Additionally, it supports these offerings with its Garmin Connect web and mobile platforms, alongside Connect IQ, an ecosystem for app development. Outdoor: Garmin's Outdoor category features rugged adventure watches, portable GPS devices, golf-specific instruments and accompanying mobile applications, plus specialized dog tracking and training systems. Aviation: The Aviation sector delivers comprehensive avionics solutions for aircraft, encompassing integrated cockpit systems, advanced flight displays and instrumentation, navigation and communication tools, automated flight controls, safety enhancements, audio management, engine monitoring, traffic and weather avoidance systems, ADS-B transponders, data connectivity, portable GPS navigators, wearable aviation devices, and related support services. Marine: For the Marine market, Garmin provides a suite of solutions including chartplotters, multi-function displays, marine cartography, fish finders, sonar technology, autopilots, radar systems, compliant instrumentation and sensors, VHF radios, handheld and wearable marine devices, sailing-specific products, onboard entertainment, digital switching, and electric trolling motors. Auto: The Automotive segment focuses on in-vehicle computing and infotainment systems, personal navigation units, and various camera solutions. Garmin's products are distributed through a diverse network including independent and online retailers, authorized dealers, distributors, service and installation centers, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and directly via its official e-commerce platform, garmin.com. Established in 1989, Garmin Ltd. maintains its corporate headquarters in Schaffhausen, Switzerland.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Hardware, Equipment & Parts
- CEO
- Clifton Albert Pemble