TGM's two-stage DCF values Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) between $112.65 and $192.44 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $144.76. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$294.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +27.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.5%/yr | 9.7% | $112.65 |
| Base case | 8.5%/yr | 8.7% | $144.76 |
| Optimistic | 11.5%/yr | 7.7% | $192.44 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $173.15 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$294.83
Market-Implied Growth
+27.6%/yr
vs +5.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$112.65 – $192.44
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GRMN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.2B · 0.19B shares · net cash $2.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$144.76
-50.9% vs $294.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $294.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $177 | $192 | $210 | $234 | $265 |
| 7.7% | $149 | $159 | $171 | $186 | $203 |
| 8.7% | $129 | $137 | $145 | $154 | $166 |
| 9.7% | $115 | $120 | $126 | $133 | $140 |
| 10.7% | $103 | $107 | $111 | $116 | $122 |
