TGM's two-stage DCF values Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) between $115.59 and $199.97 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $149.35. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$282.67 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.5%/yr | 9.5% | $115.59 |
| Base case | 8.5%/yr | 8.5% | $149.35 |
| Optimistic | 11.5%/yr | 7.5% | $199.97 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $172.11 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$282.67
Market-Implied Growth
+25.5%/yr
vs +7.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$115.59 – $199.97
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GRMN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.2B · 0.19B shares · net cash $2.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$149.35
-47.2% vs $282.67
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $282.67; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $184 | $200 | $220 | $247 | $282 |
| 7.5% | $154 | $165 | $178 | $194 | $213 |
| 8.5% | $133 | $141 | $149 | $160 | $172 |
| 9.5% | $117 | $123 | $129 | $136 | $145 |
| 10.5% | $105 | $109 | $114 | $119 | $125 |
