Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)'s fair value in a range of $92.06 – $129.96 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $364.26 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $364.26, the market is pricing in roughly +23.7%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +4.9%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$364.26
Fair-Value Range
$92.06 – $129.96
Market-Implied Growth
+23.7%/yr
vs +4.9% 5Y actual
GOOGL DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $68.9B · 12.09B shares · net debt $15.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$92.06
-74.7% vs $364.26
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $364.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $115 | $121 | $128 | $136 | $146 |
| 9.0% | $98.36 | $102 | $107 | $113 | $119 |
| 10.0% | $85.89 | $88.78 | $92.06 | $95.81 | $100 |
| 11.0% | $76.09 | $78.21 | $80.58 | $83.25 | $86.27 |
| 12.0% | $68.19 | $69.78 | $71.54 | $73.50 | $75.69 |
About Alphabet Inc.
Alphabet Inc. provides a diverse range of products and digital platforms to consumers across multiple global regions, including North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The company's operations are organized into three primary divisions: Google Services, Google Cloud, and "Other Bets." The Google Services segment delivers core offerings such as its advertising solutions, the Android operating system, the Chrome browser, and various hardware. It also features popular applications like Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. This division further handles the sale of applications, in-app purchases, and digital content via the Google Play store, alongside marketing devices such as Fitbit wearables, Google Nest smart home products, Pixel smartphones, and other proprietary hardware. It also provides non-advertising services for YouTube. The Google Cloud segment offers a comprehensive suite of infrastructure, platform, and other cloud computing services for businesses. This includes Google Workspace, a collection of cloud-native collaboration tools for enterprises, featuring applications like Gmail, Docs, Drive, Calendar, and Meet, among other specialized services for corporate clients. Lastly, the "Other Bets" segment is engaged in developing and selling health technology and internet services. Established in 1998, Alphabet Inc. maintains its principal executive offices in Mountain View, California.
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Internet Content & Information
- CEO
- Sundar Pichai