Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)'s fair value in a range of $92.06 – $129.96 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $364.26 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $364.26, the market is pricing in roughly +23.7%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +4.9%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$364.26
Fair-Value Range
$92.06 – $129.96
Market-Implied Growth
+23.7%/yr
vs +4.9% 5Y actual
GOOGL DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $68.9B · 12.09B shares · net debt $15.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$92.06
-74.7% vs $364.26
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $364.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $115 | $121 | $128 | $136 | $146 |
| 9.0% | $98.36 | $102 | $107 | $113 | $119 |
| 10.0% | $85.89 | $88.78 | $92.06 | $95.81 | $100 |
| 11.0% | $76.09 | $78.21 | $80.58 | $83.25 | $86.27 |
| 12.0% | $68.19 | $69.78 | $71.54 | $73.50 | $75.69 |