Why we don't show a single “fair value” for GOOG
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($155.04) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$319.09 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +39.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.2%/yr | 11.2% | $92.28 |
| Base case | 13.2%/yr | 10.2% | $118.44 |
| Optimistic | 16.2%/yr | 9.2% | $155.04 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $126.13 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$319.09
Market-Implied Growth
+39.6%/yr
vs +11.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$118.44
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GOOG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $71.1B · 12.13B shares · net debt $15.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$118.44
-62.9% vs $319.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $319.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $142 | $152 | $163 | $177 | $193 |
| 9.2% | $122 | $129 | $137 | $147 | $158 |
| 10.2% | $107 | $113 | $118 | $125 | $133 |
| 11.2% | $95.23 | $99.29 | $104 | $109 | $115 |
| 12.2% | $85.48 | $88.69 | $92.23 | $96.15 | $101 |
