Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)'s fair value in a range of $92.07 – $130.68 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $354.28 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $354.28, the market is pricing in roughly +23.3%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +4.9%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$354.28
Fair-Value Range
$92.07 – $130.68
Market-Implied Growth
+23.3%/yr
vs +4.9% 5Y actual
GOOG DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $68.9B · 12.09B shares · net debt $15.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$92.07
-74.0% vs $354.27
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $354.27; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $115 | $121 | $128 | $136 | $146 |
| 9.0% | $98.37 | $102 | $107 | $113 | $119 |
| 10.0% | $85.90 | $88.80 | $92.07 | $95.82 | $100 |
| 11.0% | $76.10 | $78.22 | $80.59 | $83.26 | $86.28 |
| 12.0% | $68.20 | $69.79 | $71.55 | $73.51 | $75.70 |
About Alphabet Inc.
Alphabet Inc. operates globally, providing a wide array of products and digital platforms to customers across the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific region, Canada, and Latin America. The company's business is organized into three primary segments: Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets. The Google Services division delivers a broad spectrum of consumer-facing offerings, which include its advertising products, the Android operating system, Chrome browser, various hardware devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search functionality, and YouTube. This segment also generates revenue through the sale of applications, in-app purchases, and digital content via Google Play and YouTube, alongside device sales and consumer subscriptions for YouTube services. Conversely, the Google Cloud segment furnishes enterprise-grade solutions such as infrastructure, cybersecurity, database management, analytics, artificial intelligence, and other professional services. This encompasses the Google Workspace suite, a collection of cloud-native communication and collaboration tools for businesses, including Gmail, Docs, Drive, Calendar, and Meet, among other offerings tailored for corporate clients. The Other Bets segment is dedicated to developing nascent ventures, particularly those focused on healthcare-related and internet services. Established in 1998, Alphabet Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Mountain View, California.
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Internet Content & Information
- CEO
- Sundar Pichai