TGM's two-stage DCF values Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) between $111.08 and $229.76 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $156.75. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$146.79 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.0%/yr | 8.5% | $111.08 |
| Base case | 6.0%/yr | 7.5% | $156.75 |
| Optimistic | 9.0%/yr | 6.5% | $229.76 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $146.73 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$146.79
Market-Implied Growth
+4.6%/yr
vs +9.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$111.08 – $229.76
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GILD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.9B · 1.24B shares · net debt $17.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$156.75
+6.8% vs $146.79
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $146.79; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $208 | $236 | $273 | $324 | $402 |
| 6.5% | $163 | $179 | $200 | $227 | $262 |
| 7.5% | $133 | $144 | $157 | $173 | $193 |
| 8.5% | $111 | $119 | $128 | $138 | $151 |
| 9.5% | $95.13 | $101 | $107 | $115 | $123 |
