TGM's two-stage DCF values Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) between $98.79 and $202.30 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $137.74. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$129.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $98.79 |
| Base case | 3.2%/yr | 7.5% | $137.74 |
| Optimistic | 6.2%/yr | 6.5% | $202.30 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $159.90 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$129.31
Market-Implied Growth
+1.9%/yr
vs +3.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$98.79 – $202.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GILD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.9B · 1.24B shares · net debt $17.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$137.74
+6.5% vs $129.31
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $129.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $182 | $207 | $239 | $284 | $352 |
| 6.5% | $143 | $158 | $176 | $199 | $230 |
| 7.5% | $117 | $126 | $138 | $152 | $169 |
| 8.5% | $97.83 | $105 | $112 | $122 | $133 |
| 9.5% | $83.74 | $88.69 | $94.33 | $101 | $108 |
