General Dynamics Corporation (GD) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values General Dynamics Corporation (GD) between $246.69 and $501.78 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $344.86. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$359.53 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.2%/yr | 8.5% | $246.69 |
| Base case | 9.2%/yr | 7.5% | $344.86 |
| Optimistic | 12.2%/yr | 6.5% | $501.78 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $383.38 | |
Current Price
$359.53
Market-Implied Growth
+10.1%/yr
vs +11.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$246.69 – $501.78
model output — not a price target
GD DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.6B · 0.27B shares · net debt $5.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$448.10
+24.6% vs $359.53
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $359.53; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $624 | $695 | $791 | $924 | $1124 |
| 6.5% | $484 | $525 | $576 | $642 | $729 |
| 7.5% | $392 | $417 | $448 | $486 | $533 |
| 8.5% | $326 | $343 | $363 | $387 | $415 |
| 9.5% | $277 | $289 | $303 | $319 | $337 |
About General Dynamics Corporation
General Dynamics Corporation is a global leader in the aerospace and defense industry, with its operations structured across four key divisions: Aerospace, Marine Systems, Combat Systems, and Technologies. The Aerospace segment focuses on the design, production, and sale of business jets, alongside offering a full suite of aviation services including aircraft maintenance, repair, management, charter services, and ground support. Marine Systems specializes in shipbuilding for the U.S. Navy, constructing nuclear-powered submarines, surface warships, and auxiliary vessels. This division also builds various commercial ships, such as tankers and cargo carriers. Furthermore, it provides extensive maintenance, modernization, and lifecycle support, along with engineering and design services for both naval and commercial fleets. Combat Systems is dedicated to creating land-based defense solutions, manufacturing a diverse range of products including wheeled and tracked combat vehicles (like the Stryker and Piranha), main battle tanks, armored vehicles, weapon systems, munitions, and mobile bridge systems. This segment also delivers modernization programs, engineering expertise, and ongoing sustainment services. The Technologies division offers sophisticated information technology and mission support services, catering primarily to military, intelligence, and federal civilian clients. Its offerings span mobile communication, computing, command-and-control systems, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. Additionally, this segment is deeply involved in cutting-edge areas such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence, machine learning, big data analytics, DevOps, software-defined networks, "everything-as-a-service" models, defense enterprise office systems, and the assembly of unmanned undersea vehicles. Established in 1899, General Dynamics Corporation is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- CEO
- Phebe N. Novakovic