TGM's two-stage DCF values General Dynamics Corporation (GD) between $243.87 and $496.18 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $340.96. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$382.20 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.9%/yr | 8.5% | $243.87 |
| Base case | 8.9%/yr | 7.5% | $340.96 |
| Optimistic | 11.9%/yr | 6.5% | $496.18 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $365.82 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$382.20
Market-Implied Growth
+11.5%/yr
vs +10.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$243.87 – $496.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.6B · 0.27B shares · net debt $5.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$340.96
-10.8% vs $382.20
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $382.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $451 | $510 | $590 | $701 | $867 |
| 6.5% | $354 | $390 | $434 | $492 | $568 |
| 7.5% | $289 | $313 | $341 | $375 | $418 |
| 8.5% | $243 | $260 | $279 | $302 | $329 |
| 9.5% | $209 | $221 | $235 | $251 | $269 |
