Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) between $48.05 and $113.31 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $77.64. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$110.80 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.6% | $48.05 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.6% | $77.64 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.6% | $113.31 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $124.57 | |
Current Price
$110.80
Market-Implied Growth
+23.9%/yr
vs +22.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$48.05 – $113.31
model output — not a price target
FLUT DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FLUT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $837.5M · 0.17B shares · net debt $9.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$167.93
+51.6% vs $110.80
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $110.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $233 | $252 | $275 | $303 | $338 |
| 8.6% | $185 | $198 | $212 | $230 | $251 |
| 9.6% | $149 | $158 | $168 | $180 | $194 |
| 10.6% | $121 | $128 | $135 | $143 | $153 |
| 11.6% | $99.12 | $104 | $109 | $115 | $122 |
About Flutter Entertainment plc
Flutter Entertainment plc, a global leader in sports betting and gaming, is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, having been incorporated in 1958. The company operates extensively across the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, the United States, and numerous other international regions. Its operations are strategically segmented into four principal divisions: UK & Ireland, Australia, International, and US. The group's comprehensive product offerings span a wide array of betting and gaming services. These include diverse sports wagering options such as traditional sportsbooks, exchange sports betting, daily fantasy sports, and pari-mutuel products. Beyond sports, Flutter Entertainment provides fixed-odds games, online casino experiences, lottery services, and various peer-to-peer games like online bingo, rummy, and poker. Furthermore, the company delivers business-to-business services, manages HRTV (a dedicated horseracing television network), and organizes live poker tours and events. Its services are accessible through a powerful portfolio of well-recognized online platforms, including paddypower.com, betfair.com, sportsbet.com.au, tvg.com, us.betfair.com, fanduel.com, adjarabet.com, pokerstars.com, Skybet.com, tombola.com, and sisal.com. These digital properties leverage prominent brands such as FanDuel, Sky Betting & Gaming, Sportsbet, PokerStars, Paddy Power, Sisal, tombola, Betfair, FOX Bet, TVG, Stardust, Junglee Games, and Adjarabet. The company adopted its current name, Flutter Entertainment plc, in 2019, having previously been known as Paddy Power Betfair plc.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
- CEO
- Jeremy Peter Jackson