TGM's two-stage DCF values Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) between $49.37 and $116.24 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $79.62. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$101.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +21.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.5% | $49.37 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.5% | $79.62 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.5% | $116.24 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $137.18 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$101.25
Market-Implied Growth
+21.9%/yr
vs +22.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$49.37 – $116.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FLUT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $837.5M · 0.17B shares · net debt $9.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$79.62
-21.4% vs $101.25
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $101.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $109 | $122 | $137 | $156 | $179 |
| 8.5% | $84.25 | $93.12 | $103 | $116 | $130 |
| 9.5% | $65.71 | $72.21 | $79.62 | $88.16 | $98.12 |
| 10.5% | $51.36 | $56.28 | $61.81 | $68.06 | $75.21 |
| 11.5% | $39.94 | $43.77 | $48.02 | $52.76 | $58.08 |
