TGM's two-stage DCF values Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) between $273.06 and $537.14 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $383.87. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$985.39 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +34.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.3%/yr | 11.6% | $273.06 |
| Base case | 14.3%/yr | 10.6% | $383.87 |
| Optimistic | 17.3%/yr | 9.6% | $537.14 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $486.66 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$985.39
Market-Implied Growth
+34.9%/yr
vs +16.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$273.06 – $537.14
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FICO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $555.4M · 0.02B shares · net debt $2.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$383.87
-61.0% vs $985.39
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $985.39; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $483 | $522 | $567 | $620 | $684 |
| 9.6% | $401 | $430 | $462 | $500 | $543 |
| 10.6% | $338 | $359 | $384 | $411 | $443 |
| 11.6% | $287 | $304 | $323 | $344 | $367 |
| 12.6% | $246 | $259 | $274 | $290 | $308 |
