A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Ford Motor Company (F) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$14.37 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +27.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.0%/yr | 12.5% | N/A |
| Base case | 8.0%/yr | 11.5% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 11.0%/yr | 10.5% | N/A |
Current Price
$14.37
Market-Implied Growth
+27.5%/yr
vs +8.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for F (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $6.7B · 3.91B shares · net debt $141.4B
Estimated Fair Value
N/A
These assumptions imply no positive equity value — try a higher growth or lower discount rate.
