Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) between $101.14 and $157.75 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $121.08. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$163.23 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.3% | $101.14 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.3% | $121.08 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.3% | $157.75 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $76.66 | |
Current Price
$163.23
Market-Implied Growth
+9.9%/yr
vs +3.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$101.14 – $157.75
model output — not a price target
EXPD DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EXPD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $983.6M · 0.13B shares · net cash $1.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$119.28
-26.9% vs $163.23
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $163.23; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $147 | $155 | $164 | $176 | $191 |
| 8.3% | $127 | $132 | $138 | $145 | $154 |
| 9.3% | $112 | $115 | $119 | $124 | $130 |
| 10.3% | $99.87 | $102 | $105 | $109 | $113 |
| 11.3% | $90.61 | $92.53 | $94.67 | $97.07 | $99.77 |
About Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. functions as a prominent global logistics and supply chain management enterprise. With a vast operational footprint spanning the Americas, North and South Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India, the company delivers an extensive portfolio of services to its clients. Their core transportation offerings include comprehensive air freight solutions, encompassing both consolidation and forwarding, alongside diverse ocean freight services ranging from consolidated cargo to direct vessel bookings, complemented by efficient order management. Beyond mere transport, Expeditors provides crucial ancillary services such as customs brokerage and clearance, intra-continental ground delivery, and warehousing and distribution. The company's advanced supply chain capabilities feature meticulous purchase order oversight, vendor consolidation, guaranteed time-critical transportation, temperature-controlled shipping environments, cargo insurance, and sophisticated cargo monitoring and tracking systems. Moreover, they offer strategic advisory services for supply chain optimization, trade compliance, general business consulting, and enhanced cargo security protocols. Expeditors frequently acts as a freight consolidator or an authorized agent for airlines facilitating shipments. Their support infrastructure further includes the detailed preparation of all required shipping and customs documentation, expert packing and crating services, arrangement of insurance, negotiation of letters of credit, and ensuring full compliance with local export regulations. Serving a broad spectrum of industries, their client base primarily consists of retailing, wholesaling, electronics, technology, and various industrial and manufacturing companies. Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. was founded in 1979 and maintains its corporate headquarters in Seattle, Washington.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- CEO
- Daniel R. Wall