TGM's two-stage DCF values Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) between $101.14 and $157.75 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $121.08. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$168.14 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.3% | $101.14 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.3% | $121.08 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.3% | $157.75 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $75.52 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$168.14
Market-Implied Growth
+10.6%/yr
vs +3.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$101.14 – $157.75
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EXPD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $983.6M · 0.13B shares · net cash $1.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$121.08
-28.0% vs $168.14
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $168.14; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $145 | $155 | $167 | $182 | $202 |
| 8.3% | $125 | $132 | $140 | $150 | $162 |
| 9.3% | $110 | $115 | $121 | $128 | $136 |
| 10.3% | $98.55 | $102 | $107 | $112 | $118 |
| 11.3% | $89.49 | $92.53 | $95.92 | $99.71 | $104 |
