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Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)
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Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) DCF Valuation

Price is ABOVE the estimated range
$101.14
$157.75
Model scenario range
$163.23
Today's price

TGM's two-stage DCF values Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) between $101.14 and $157.75 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $121.08. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.3%) reflects its beta.

What would today's price require?

Growth the price assumes+9.9%/yr
Actual FCF growth, last 5 years+3.0%/yr

$163.23 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.

ScenarioFCF growth (fading to 2.5%)DiscountValue / share
Conservative0.5%/yr10.3%$101.14
Base case2.0%/yr9.3%$121.08
Optimistic5.0%/yr8.3%$157.75
Analyst DCF (FMP)independent reference — different model$76.66

Current Price

$163.23

Market-Implied Growth

+9.9%/yr

vs +3.0% 5Y actual

Model Scenario Range

$101.14 – $157.75

model output — not a price target

EXPD DCF Fair Value Calculator

Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EXPD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.

2%/yr
Historical FCF CAGR: 3Y -25.0% · 5Y 3.0% · 10Y 4.1%
9.3%
2.5%
10yr

Base inputs: FCF $983.6M · 0.13B shares · net cash $1.3B

Estimated Fair Value

$119.28

-26.9% vs $163.23

Current price$163.23
Analyst DCF (FMP)$76.66

Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth

How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $163.23; red = below. Your current case is outlined.

WACC ↓ / Terminal →1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
7.3%$147$155$164$176$191
8.3%$127$132$138$145$154
9.3%$112$115$119$124$130
10.3%$99.87$102$105$109$113
11.3%$90.61$92.53$94.67$97.07$99.77

About Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. functions as a prominent global logistics and supply chain management enterprise. With a vast operational footprint spanning the Americas, North and South Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India, the company delivers an extensive portfolio of services to its clients. Their core transportation offerings include comprehensive air freight solutions, encompassing both consolidation and forwarding, alongside diverse ocean freight services ranging from consolidated cargo to direct vessel bookings, complemented by efficient order management. Beyond mere transport, Expeditors provides crucial ancillary services such as customs brokerage and clearance, intra-continental ground delivery, and warehousing and distribution. The company's advanced supply chain capabilities feature meticulous purchase order oversight, vendor consolidation, guaranteed time-critical transportation, temperature-controlled shipping environments, cargo insurance, and sophisticated cargo monitoring and tracking systems. Moreover, they offer strategic advisory services for supply chain optimization, trade compliance, general business consulting, and enhanced cargo security protocols. Expeditors frequently acts as a freight consolidator or an authorized agent for airlines facilitating shipments. Their support infrastructure further includes the detailed preparation of all required shipping and customs documentation, expert packing and crating services, arrangement of insurance, negotiation of letters of credit, and ensuring full compliance with local export regulations. Serving a broad spectrum of industries, their client base primarily consists of retailing, wholesaling, electronics, technology, and various industrial and manufacturing companies. Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. was founded in 1979 and maintains its corporate headquarters in Seattle, Washington.

Bellevue, WA
19,203 employees
Industrials / Integrated Freight & Logistics
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Integrated Freight & Logistics
CEO
Daniel R. Wall