Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)'s fair value in a range of $21.85 – $122.12 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $69.86 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $69.86, the market is pricing in roughly -3.4%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -3.1%, roughly in line with its track record.
Current Price
$69.86
Fair-Value Range
$21.85 – $122.12
Market-Implied Growth
-3.4%/yr
vs -3.1% 5Y actual
ETSY DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $664.9M · 0.09B shares · net cash $653.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$122.12
+74.8% vs $69.86
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $69.86; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $150 | $157 | $166 | $177 | $189 |
| 9.0% | $130 | $135 | $141 | $147 | $155 |
| 10.0% | $115 | $118 | $122 | $127 | $132 |
| 11.0% | $102 | $105 | $108 | $111 | $115 |
| 12.0% | $92.66 | $94.63 | $96.80 | $99.21 | $102 |
About Etsy, Inc.
Etsy, Inc. oversees online retail platforms designed to link independent merchants with a global customer base. Its primary marketplace is dedicated to unique and handcrafted items, while its Depop division focuses on the resale of apparel. The company's revenue streams largely originate from diverse marketplace fees, such as those for product listings, transactions, and payment processing, as well as from advertising services and optional seller utilities like shipping labels. Furthermore, Etsy administers programs aimed at improving search placement, providing buyer protection for qualifying orders, and offering financial incentives for seller-driven traffic. The enterprise was founded in 2005, formally incorporated as Indieco, Inc. in 2006, and then rebranded as Etsy, Inc. in June of the same year. Its corporate headquarters are located in Brooklyn, New York.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- CEO
- Joshua G. Silverman