TGM's two-stage DCF values Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) between $58.09 and $102.33 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $76.90. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$80.62 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.9%/yr | 12.5% | $58.09 |
| Base case | 6.9%/yr | 11.5% | $76.90 |
| Optimistic | 9.9%/yr | 10.5% | $102.33 |
Current Price
$80.62
Market-Implied Growth
+7.9%/yr
vs -3.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$58.09 – $102.33
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ETSY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $656.0M · 0.09B shares · net debt $1.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$76.90
-4.6% vs $80.62
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $80.62; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $92.38 | $98.05 | $105 | $112 | $121 |
| 10.5% | $79.84 | $84.14 | $88.97 | $94.44 | $101 |
| 11.5% | $69.83 | $73.18 | $76.90 | $81.05 | $85.72 |
| 12.5% | $61.65 | $64.32 | $67.26 | $70.50 | $74.09 |
| 13.5% | $54.84 | $57.01 | $59.38 | $61.96 | $64.80 |
