TGM's two-stage DCF values Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) between $48.83 and $81.24 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $60.47. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$72.82 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $48.83 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $60.47 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $81.24 |
Current Price
$72.82
Market-Implied Growth
+5.8%/yr
vs -2.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$48.83 – $81.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ETSY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $656.0M · 0.09B shares · net debt $1.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$60.47
-17.0% vs $72.82
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $72.82; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $72.80 | $77.30 | $82.44 | $88.35 | $95.25 |
| 10.5% | $62.82 | $66.24 | $70.08 | $74.43 | $79.38 |
| 11.5% | $54.83 | $57.51 | $60.47 | $63.77 | $67.48 |
| 12.5% | $48.31 | $50.44 | $52.78 | $55.36 | $58.22 |
| 13.5% | $42.86 | $44.60 | $46.48 | $48.54 | $50.80 |
