Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ECL
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($138.43) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$283.70 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +30.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.7%/yr | 9.6% | $64.05 |
| Base case | 6.7%/yr | 8.6% | $93.89 |
| Optimistic | 9.7%/yr | 7.6% | $138.43 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $215.43 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$283.70
Market-Implied Growth
+30.3%/yr
vs +6.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$93.89
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ECL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.28B shares · net debt $8.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$93.89
-66.9% vs $283.70
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $283.70; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $124 | $138 | $155 | $178 | $207 |
| 7.6% | $98.07 | $107 | $119 | $132 | $149 |
| 8.6% | $79.66 | $86.25 | $93.89 | $103 | $114 |
| 9.6% | $65.82 | $70.67 | $76.19 | $82.53 | $89.91 |
| 10.6% | $55.04 | $58.73 | $62.87 | $67.54 | $72.87 |
