Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ECL
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($135.65) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$274.52 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.3%/yr | 9.6% | $62.53 |
| Base case | 6.3%/yr | 8.6% | $91.87 |
| Optimistic | 9.3%/yr | 7.6% | $135.65 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $204.24 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$274.52
Market-Implied Growth
+29.5%/yr
vs +5.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$91.87
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ECL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.28B shares · net debt $8.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$91.87
-66.5% vs $274.52
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $274.52; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $121 | $135 | $152 | $174 | $203 |
| 7.6% | $95.97 | $105 | $116 | $129 | $146 |
| 8.6% | $77.90 | $84.36 | $91.87 | $101 | $111 |
| 9.6% | $64.32 | $69.07 | $74.49 | $80.72 | $87.96 |
| 10.6% | $53.73 | $57.35 | $61.41 | $66.00 | $71.23 |
