Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ECG
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($39.31) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$163.56 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +57.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.5%/yr | 12.5% | $23.81 |
| Base case | 11.5%/yr | 11.5% | $30.40 |
| Optimistic | 14.5%/yr | 10.5% | $39.31 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $16.65 | |
Current Price
$163.56
Market-Implied Growth
+57.2%/yr
Base-Case Model Value
$30.40
model output — not a price target
ECG DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ECG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $102.6M · 0.05B shares · net debt $111.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$40.80
-75.1% vs $163.56
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $163.56; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $50.60 | $52.80 | $55.31 | $58.21 | $61.59 |
| 10.5% | $43.74 | $45.33 | $47.11 | $49.14 | $51.45 |
| 11.5% | $38.31 | $39.49 | $40.80 | $42.26 | $43.91 |
| 12.5% | $33.92 | $34.81 | $35.80 | $36.88 | $38.09 |
| 13.5% | $30.30 | $30.99 | $31.74 | $32.57 | $33.48 |
About Everus Construction Group, Inc.
Everus Construction Group, Inc. specializes in developing utility infrastructure. Their comprehensive service portfolio includes building electrical transmission lines and pipelines, alongside internal electrical wiring, cabling installations, and various mechanical solutions. Furthermore, the firm manufactures and distributes specialized equipment and electrical control panels. They are also responsible for the installation and ongoing maintenance of automatic fire suppression systems, particularly within the Las Vegas and Reno regions. This company was founded in 1995 and maintains its primary base of operations in Bismarck, North Dakota.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- CEO
- Jeffrey S. Thiede