Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ECG
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($39.25) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$131.89 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +50.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.5%/yr | 12.5% | $23.77 |
| Base case | 11.5%/yr | 11.5% | $30.35 |
| Optimistic | 14.5%/yr | 10.5% | $39.25 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $17.59 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$131.89
Market-Implied Growth
+50.8%/yr
Base-Case Model Value
$30.35
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ECG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $102.6M · 0.05B shares · net debt $111.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$30.35
-77.0% vs $131.89
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $131.89; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $35.89 | $37.92 | $40.24 | $42.91 | $46.02 |
| 10.5% | $31.40 | $32.94 | $34.67 | $36.63 | $38.86 |
| 11.5% | $27.82 | $29.02 | $30.35 | $31.84 | $33.51 |
| 12.5% | $24.90 | $25.86 | $26.91 | $28.06 | $29.35 |
| 13.5% | $22.47 | $23.25 | $24.09 | $25.02 | $26.03 |
