TGM's two-stage DCF values DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) between $24.15 and $37.94 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $30.64. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$73.37 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +41.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.3% | $24.15 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.3% | $30.64 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.3% | $37.94 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 27, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $45.01 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$73.37
Market-Implied Growth
+41.6%/yr
vs +18.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$24.15 – $37.94
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DXCM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $571.3M · 0.39B shares · net debt $323.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$30.64
-58.2% vs $73.37
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $73.37; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3% | $36.31 | $38.43 | $40.85 | $43.65 | $46.93 |
| 10.3% | $31.69 | $33.29 | $35.08 | $37.11 | $39.45 |
| 11.3% | $28.03 | $29.27 | $30.64 | $32.17 | $33.90 |
| 12.3% | $25.07 | $26.04 | $27.12 | $28.31 | $29.63 |
| 13.3% | $22.61 | $23.40 | $24.26 | $25.21 | $26.24 |
