DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) between $24.43 and $38.49 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $31.03. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$75.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +42.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.2% | $24.43 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.2% | $31.03 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.2% | $38.49 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $47.16 | |
Current Price
$75.25
Market-Implied Growth
+42.0%/yr
vs +18.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$24.43 – $38.49
model output — not a price target
DXCM DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DXCM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $571.3M · 0.39B shares · net debt $323.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$51.56
-31.5% vs $75.25
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $75.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $64.77 | $67.93 | $71.57 | $75.79 | $80.76 |
| 10.2% | $55.37 | $57.64 | $60.20 | $63.12 | $66.47 |
| 11.2% | $48.03 | $49.70 | $51.56 | $53.65 | $56.01 |
| 12.2% | $42.15 | $43.41 | $44.80 | $46.34 | $48.06 |
| 13.2% | $37.36 | $38.32 | $39.38 | $40.55 | $41.83 |
About DexCom, Inc.
DexCom, Inc. is a medical technology company primarily focused on innovating, developing, and marketing continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems. Operating across the United States and internationally, the firm provides its solutions for individuals managing diabetes as well as for healthcare practitioners. Its product portfolio features the DexCom G6, a comprehensive CGM system for diabetes management; the Dexcom Real-Time API, enabling authorized third-party developers to integrate live CGM data into their digital health applications; the Dexcom ONE, which aims to supersede traditional finger-prick blood glucose testing for treatment decisions; and Dexcom Share, a remote monitoring platform. The company is also developing the Dexcom G7, its next-generation CGM system. Furthermore, DexCom, Inc. has a licensing and collaboration agreement with Verily Life Sciences LLC and Verily Ireland Limited to advance blood-based or interstitial glucose monitoring products. The company directly sells its offerings to specialists such as endocrinologists, physicians, and diabetes educators. DexCom, Inc. was founded in 1999 and maintains its headquarters in San Diego, California.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Devices
- CEO
- Jacob Steven Leach