DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put DexCom, Inc. (DXCM)'s fair value in a range of $25.92 – $33.30 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $75.62 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $75.62, the market is pricing in roughly +19.3%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +43.4%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$75.62
Fair-Value Range
$25.92 – $33.30
Market-Implied Growth
+19.3%/yr
vs +43.4% 5Y actual
DXCM DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $631.1M · 0.39B shares · net debt $323.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$25.92
-65.7% vs $75.62
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $75.62; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $32.42 | $34.13 | $36.14 | $38.56 | $41.52 |
| 9.0% | $27.73 | $28.90 | $30.24 | $31.81 | $33.66 |
| 10.0% | $24.16 | $24.99 | $25.92 | $27.00 | $28.24 |
| 11.0% | $21.35 | $21.95 | $22.63 | $23.40 | $24.26 |
| 12.0% | $19.08 | $19.54 | $20.04 | $20.60 | $21.23 |
About DexCom, Inc.
DexCom, Inc. is a medical technology company primarily focused on innovating, developing, and marketing continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems. Operating across the United States and internationally, the firm provides its solutions for individuals managing diabetes as well as for healthcare practitioners. Its product portfolio features the DexCom G6, a comprehensive CGM system for diabetes management; the Dexcom Real-Time API, enabling authorized third-party developers to integrate live CGM data into their digital health applications; the Dexcom ONE, which aims to supersede traditional finger-prick blood glucose testing for treatment decisions; and Dexcom Share, a remote monitoring platform. The company is also developing the Dexcom G7, its next-generation CGM system. Furthermore, DexCom, Inc. has a licensing and collaboration agreement with Verily Life Sciences LLC and Verily Ireland Limited to advance blood-based or interstitial glucose monitoring products. The company directly sells its offerings to specialists such as endocrinologists, physicians, and diabetes educators. DexCom, Inc. was founded in 1999 and maintains its headquarters in San Diego, California.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Devices
- CEO
- Jacob Steven Leach