TGM's two-stage DCF values Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) between $63.59 and $125.47 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $89.52. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$47.05 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $63.59 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $89.52 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $125.47 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $93.76 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$47.05
Market-Implied Growth
+4.0%/yr
vs +23.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$63.59 – $125.47
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DVN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.7B · 1.10B shares · net debt $7.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$89.52
+90.3% vs $47.05
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $47.05; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $120 | $136 | $158 | $188 | $234 |
| 6.5% | $93.07 | $103 | $115 | $131 | $152 |
| 7.5% | $75.35 | $81.79 | $89.52 | $98.95 | $111 |
| 8.5% | $62.75 | $67.26 | $72.51 | $78.71 | $86.14 |
| 9.5% | $53.34 | $56.63 | $60.40 | $64.74 | $69.79 |
