Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DVN
Even the conservative scenario ($119.97) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$42.21 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -10.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $119.97 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $168.60 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $236.05 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $109.43 | |
Current Price
$42.21
Market-Implied Growth
-10.2%/yr
vs +28.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$168.60
model output — not a price target
DVN DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DVN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.9B · 0.62B shares · net debt $7.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$307.47
+628.4% vs $42.21
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $42.21; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $436 | $489 | $560 | $659 | $807 |
| 6.5% | $333 | $364 | $401 | $450 | $515 |
| 7.5% | $266 | $285 | $307 | $335 | $370 |
| 8.5% | $218 | $231 | $245 | $263 | $284 |
| 9.5% | $183 | $192 | $202 | $213 | $227 |
About Devon Energy Corporation
As an independent energy producer, Devon Energy Corporation primarily focuses on the exploration, development, and extraction of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids within the United States. The company manages roughly 5,134 gross wells. Established in 1971, its corporate headquarters are located in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- CEO
- Clay Gaspar