Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DVN
Even the conservative scenario ($99.89) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$44.40 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -5.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $99.89 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $140.62 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $197.10 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $101.34 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$44.40
Market-Implied Growth
-5.9%/yr
vs +23.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$140.62
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DVN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.7B · 0.70B shares · net debt $7.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$140.62
+216.7% vs $44.40
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $44.40; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $188 | $214 | $248 | $296 | $368 |
| 6.5% | $146 | $162 | $181 | $206 | $238 |
| 7.5% | $118 | $128 | $141 | $155 | $174 |
| 8.5% | $98.57 | $106 | $114 | $124 | $135 |
| 9.5% | $83.78 | $88.96 | $94.88 | $102 | $110 |
