DaVita Inc. (DVA) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values DaVita Inc. (DVA) between $118.55 and $354.70 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $213.60. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$208.66 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.9%/yr | 9.7% | $118.55 |
| Base case | 4.9%/yr | 8.7% | $213.60 |
| Optimistic | 7.9%/yr | 7.7% | $354.70 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $233.55 | |
Current Price
$208.66
Market-Implied Growth
+4.6%/yr
vs +6.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$118.55 – $354.70
model output — not a price target
DVA DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DVA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.4B · 0.06B shares · net debt $11.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$247.19
+18.5% vs $208.66
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $208.66; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $371 | $411 | $460 | $523 | $605 |
| 7.7% | $278 | $303 | $333 | $370 | $415 |
| 8.7% | $210 | $227 | $247 | $270 | $298 |
| 9.7% | $160 | $172 | $185 | $201 | $219 |
| 10.7% | $120 | $129 | $139 | $150 | $162 |
About DaVita Inc.
DaVita Inc. specializes in delivering essential kidney dialysis treatments and comprehensive renal care to individuals grappling with chronic kidney failure. The company primarily operates an extensive network of outpatient dialysis centers, supplementing this with services provided in hospital inpatient settings and within patients' homes. Beyond direct patient treatment, DaVita manages its own diagnostic laboratories, performing routine tests vital for dialysis patients, alongside other physician-ordered laboratory analyses specifically for those with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The firm also offers administrative and management support to various other outpatient dialysis facilities. Its broad spectrum of offerings extends to chronic disease management programs, supporting a substantial patient cohort; by year-end 2021, this included 16,000 patients enrolled in risk-based integrated care models and an additional 7,000 in other integrated care arrangements. Further specialized services encompass vascular access interventions, clinical research initiatives, direct physician support, and a complete suite of holistic kidney care solutions. As of December 31, 2021, DaVita's footprint across the United States comprised 2,815 outpatient dialysis centers, collectively serving approximately 203,100 patients. Globally, the company operated 339 outpatient dialysis centers spread across ten countries outside the U.S., attending to roughly 39,900 patients. Moreover, it furnished acute inpatient dialysis services and related laboratory work in around 850 U.S. hospitals. Founded in 1994, DaVita Inc. maintains its headquarters in Denver, Colorado. The company rebranded to its current name in September 2016, having previously been known as DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Care Facilities
- CEO
- Javier J. Rodriguez