TGM's two-stage DCF values DaVita Inc. (DVA) between $137.24 and $395.40 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $240.51. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$181.55 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +2.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.7%/yr | 9.5% | $137.24 |
| Base case | 5.7%/yr | 8.5% | $240.51 |
| Optimistic | 8.7%/yr | 7.5% | $395.40 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $241.05 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$181.55
Market-Implied Growth
+2.1%/yr
vs +7.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$137.24 – $395.40
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DVA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.4B · 0.06B shares · net debt $11.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$240.51
+32.5% vs $181.55
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $181.55; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $344 | $394 | $456 | $535 | $641 |
| 7.5% | $255 | $287 | $327 | $374 | $434 |
| 8.5% | $191 | $214 | $241 | $272 | $310 |
| 9.5% | $143 | $160 | $179 | $201 | $227 |
| 10.5% | $106 | $119 | $133 | $149 | $168 |
