Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)'s fair value in a range of $116.47 – $388.42 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $316.00 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $316.00, the market is pricing in roughly +12.9%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +5.1%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$316.00
Fair-Value Range
$116.47 – $388.42
Market-Implied Growth
+12.9%/yr
vs +5.1% 5Y actual
DPZ DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $514.3M · 0.03B shares · net debt $4.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$116.47
-63.1% vs $316.00
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $316.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $178 | $194 | $213 | $236 | $264 |
| 9.0% | $134 | $145 | $157 | $172 | $190 |
| 10.0% | $99.71 | $108 | $116 | $127 | $138 |
| 11.0% | $73.10 | $78.86 | $85.29 | $92.53 | $101 |
| 12.0% | $51.64 | $55.97 | $60.75 | $66.06 | $72.00 |
About Domino's Pizza, Inc.
Domino's Pizza, Inc. operates as a leading international and domestic purveyor of pizza, managing its extensive operations through three distinct segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply Chain. The company is primarily recognized for its Domino's-branded pizzas, which are distributed via a vast network of both corporate-owned and independently franchised outlets. Beyond its flagship product, the menu also encompasses a variety of other offerings, including oven-baked sandwiches, pasta dishes, boneless and winged chicken, various bread and dip accompaniments, desserts, and soft drink beverages. As of January 2, 2022, the enterprise boasted approximately 18,800 locations spanning 90 global markets. Established in 1960, Domino's Pizza, Inc. is headquartered in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- CEO
- Russell J. Weiner