TGM's two-stage DCF values Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) between $54.55 and $197.08 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $110.83. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$336.57 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +19.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.9% | $54.55 |
| Base case | 3.2%/yr | 8.9% | $110.83 |
| Optimistic | 6.2%/yr | 7.9% | $197.08 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $355.23 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$336.57
Market-Implied Growth
+19.2%/yr
vs +2.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$54.55 – $197.08
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DPZ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $498.7M · 0.03B shares · net debt $4.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$110.83
-67.1% vs $336.57
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $336.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $167 | $193 | $224 | $264 | $315 |
| 7.9% | $119 | $136 | $157 | $182 | $212 |
| 8.9% | $84.00 | $96.45 | $111 | $128 | $148 |
| 9.9% | $57.31 | $66.59 | $77.10 | $89.12 | $103 |
| 10.9% | $36.31 | $43.44 | $51.41 | $60.36 | $70.51 |
