Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)'s fair value in a range of $116.44 – $386.26 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $317.69 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $317.69, the market is pricing in roughly +13.0%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +5.1%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$317.69
Fair-Value Range
$116.44 – $386.26
Market-Implied Growth
+13.0%/yr
vs +5.1% 5Y actual
DPZ DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $514.3M · 0.03B shares · net debt $4.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$116.44
-63.3% vs $317.69
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $317.69; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $178 | $194 | $213 | $236 | $264 |
| 9.0% | $134 | $145 | $157 | $172 | $190 |
| 10.0% | $99.68 | $108 | $116 | $127 | $138 |
| 11.0% | $73.07 | $78.83 | $85.27 | $92.51 | $101 |
| 12.0% | $51.63 | $55.95 | $60.73 | $66.04 | $71.98 |