Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DMLP
Even the conservative scenario ($81.58) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$27.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -15.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $81.58 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $111.43 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $152.84 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 12, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $50.37 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$27.31
Market-Implied Growth
-15.0%/yr
vs +34.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$111.43
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DMLP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $136.2M · 0.05B shares · net cash $41.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$111.43
+308.0% vs $27.31
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $27.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $146 | $165 | $190 | $225 | $278 |
| 6.5% | $116 | $127 | $141 | $159 | $183 |
| 7.5% | $95.12 | $103 | $111 | $122 | $136 |
| 8.5% | $80.61 | $85.80 | $91.84 | $98.98 | $108 |
| 9.5% | $69.77 | $73.57 | $77.90 | $82.90 | $88.72 |
