Dorchester Minerals, L.P. (DMLP) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DMLP
Even the conservative scenario ($81.58) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$25.63 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -16.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $81.58 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $111.43 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $152.84 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $53.03 | |
Current Price
$25.63
Market-Implied Growth
-16.4%/yr
vs +30.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$111.43
model output — not a price target
DMLP DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DMLP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $136.2M · 0.05B shares · net cash $41.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$196.68
+667.4% vs $25.63
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $25.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $275 | $308 | $351 | $412 | $504 |
| 6.5% | $212 | $231 | $254 | $284 | $324 |
| 7.5% | $171 | $183 | $197 | $214 | $235 |
| 8.5% | $142 | $150 | $159 | $169 | $182 |
| 9.5% | $120 | $126 | $132 | $139 | $147 |
About Dorchester Minerals, L.P.
Dorchester Minerals, L.P. is engaged in the acquisition, ownership, and management of both producing and non-producing royalty, net profit, and leasehold interests related to natural gas and crude oil across the United States. Its extensive royalty holdings encompass mineral, royalty, and overriding royalty interests, spanning 582 counties and parishes in 26 states. The firm's net profits interests represent overriding royalty interests derived from the net earnings of properties held by the operating partnership. Dorchester Minerals Management LP serves as the general partner for Dorchester Minerals, L.P. This Dallas, Texas-based company was established in 1982.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- CEO
- Bradley J. Ehrman