TGM's two-stage DCF values The Walt Disney Company (DIS) between $27.44 and $57.58 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $40.16. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$94.85 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +26.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.4%/yr | 12.0% | $27.44 |
| Base case | 9.4%/yr | 11.0% | $40.16 |
| Optimistic | 12.4%/yr | 10.0% | $57.58 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $98.73 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$94.85
Market-Implied Growth
+26.1%/yr
vs +20.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$27.44 – $57.58
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DIS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $6.7B · 1.74B shares · net debt $36.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$40.16
-57.7% vs $94.85
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $94.85; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $51.06 | $55.20 | $59.97 | $65.52 | $72.09 |
| 10.0% | $42.15 | $45.24 | $48.74 | $52.73 | $57.33 |
| 11.0% | $35.13 | $37.51 | $40.16 | $43.15 | $46.52 |
| 12.0% | $29.47 | $31.34 | $33.41 | $35.71 | $38.27 |
| 13.0% | $24.80 | $26.31 | $27.96 | $29.77 | $31.77 |
