TGM's two-stage DCF values The Walt Disney Company (DIS) between $29.75 and $61.40 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $43.11. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$104.59 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +28.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.6%/yr | 12.0% | $29.75 |
| Base case | 10.6%/yr | 11.0% | $43.11 |
| Optimistic | 13.6%/yr | 10.0% | $61.40 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $93.58 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$104.59
Market-Implied Growth
+28.3%/yr
vs +10.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$29.75 – $61.40
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DIS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $6.7B · 1.74B shares · net debt $36.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$43.11
-58.8% vs $104.59
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $104.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $54.61 | $58.98 | $64.02 | $69.89 | $76.82 |
| 10.0% | $45.20 | $48.47 | $52.16 | $56.37 | $61.23 |
| 11.0% | $37.80 | $40.31 | $43.11 | $46.26 | $49.82 |
| 12.0% | $31.82 | $33.80 | $35.99 | $38.41 | $41.11 |
| 13.0% | $26.90 | $28.49 | $30.23 | $32.14 | $34.25 |
