TGM's two-stage DCF values Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) between $148.03 and $241.09 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $186.59. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$100.20 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.0%/yr | 10.9% | $148.03 |
| Base case | 17.0%/yr | 9.9% | $186.59 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.9% | $241.09 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $169.18 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$100.20
Market-Implied Growth
-0.3%/yr
vs +19.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$148.03 – $241.09
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DECK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $951.1M · 0.14B shares · net cash $1.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$186.59
+86.2% vs $100.20
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $100.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $223 | $238 | $256 | $278 | $304 |
| 8.9% | $193 | $203 | $216 | $230 | $248 |
| 9.9% | $169 | $177 | $187 | $197 | $209 |
| 10.9% | $151 | $158 | $164 | $172 | $181 |
| 11.9% | $137 | $142 | $147 | $153 | $160 |
