Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) between $142.97 and $233.55 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $180.43. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$109.11 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +2.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.2%/yr | 10.8% | $142.97 |
| Base case | 16.2%/yr | 9.8% | $180.43 |
| Optimistic | 19.2%/yr | 8.8% | $233.55 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $173.77 | |
Current Price
$109.11
Market-Implied Growth
+2.3%/yr
vs +15.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$142.97 – $233.55
model output — not a price target
DECK DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DECK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $951.1M · 0.14B shares · net cash $1.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$277.93
+154.7% vs $109.11
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $109.11; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $353 | $375 | $400 | $431 | $469 |
| 8.8% | $298 | $312 | $329 | $349 | $372 |
| 9.8% | $256 | $266 | $278 | $291 | $307 |
| 10.8% | $224 | $231 | $240 | $249 | $260 |
| 11.8% | $198 | $204 | $210 | $217 | $225 |
About Deckers Outdoor Corporation
Deckers Outdoor Corporation, operating with its subsidiaries, is a global enterprise dedicated to the creation, promotion, and distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories. Its product lines serve both casual everyday needs and specialized high-performance activities. The company manages a portfolio of prominent brands: Under the UGG label, it offers premium footwear, clothing, and related items. Teva is known for its range of sandals, shoes, and boots. Sanuk provides comfortable, relaxed casual shoes and sandals. For the athletic segment, particularly ultra-runners and other athletes, Hoka supplies specialized footwear and apparel. Lastly, Koolaburra features fashionable casual footwear, often incorporating plush materials. Deckers employs a multi-faceted sales approach. Its products are available through wholesale channels, including major department stores, independent outdoor and action sports retailers, large national retail chains, and various third-party online platforms. Concurrently, the company engages directly with consumers via its own network of physical retail outlets and e-commerce websites. Globally, Deckers extends its reach across the United States, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America, leveraging a broad network of distributors and retailers. As of March 31, 2022, its direct-to-consumer footprint included 149 retail locations worldwide, comprising 75 concept stores and 74 outlet stores. Established in 1973, Deckers Outdoor Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Goleta, California.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
- CEO
- Stefano Caroti