TGM's two-stage DCF values Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) between $149.76 and $245.01 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $189.15. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$78.43 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -7.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.0%/yr | 10.8% | $149.76 |
| Base case | 17.0%/yr | 9.8% | $189.15 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.8% | $245.01 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $162.94 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$78.43
Market-Implied Growth
-7.6%/yr
vs +19.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$149.76 – $245.01
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DECK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $951.1M · 0.14B shares · net cash $1.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$189.15
+141.2% vs $78.43
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $78.43; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $227 | $242 | $261 | $283 | $311 |
| 8.8% | $195 | $206 | $219 | $234 | $252 |
| 9.8% | $172 | $180 | $189 | $200 | $212 |
| 10.8% | $153 | $159 | $166 | $174 | $183 |
| 11.8% | $138 | $143 | $149 | $155 | $161 |
