Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DAVE
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($142.55) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$334.57 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +47.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $92.56 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $116.16 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $142.55 |
Current Price
$334.57
Market-Implied Growth
+47.6%/yr
vs +35.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$116.16
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DAVE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $75.0M · 0.01B shares · net cash $5.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$116.16
-65.3% vs $334.57
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $334.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $137 | $144 | $153 | $163 | $174 |
| 10.5% | $120 | $126 | $132 | $139 | $148 |
| 11.5% | $107 | $111 | $116 | $122 | $128 |
| 12.5% | $96.07 | $99.59 | $103 | $108 | $112 |
| 13.5% | $87.15 | $90.01 | $93.11 | $96.51 | $100 |
